Russia increasing military presence in Armenia, Ukraine's military intelligence claims

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Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) says Russia is increasing and reinforcing its military presence in Armenia. On 5 July, Ukrainian military intelligence said that Moscow was increasing its forces at the Gyumri base to exert greater influence in the South Caucasus and "destabilize the global security situation."

Why is the Gyumri military base important?

HUR published what it claims to be a Russian army order to increase its military presence at a base in Armenia, two days after Kyiv's first warning of such a move was denied by Yerevan. Armenia's Foreign Ministry denied the claim the same day.

Days later, HUR published a document which it said was an "order from the commander of the troops of the Southern Military District of the Russian Armed Forces on the 'replenishment' of the Russian military base in Armenia."

"The telegram lists a list of measures for the urgent 'replenishment' of the units of the Russian unit by selecting personnel from among the servicemen of the 8th, 18th, 49th and 58th combined arms armies of the Southern Military District of the Russian Armed Forces," HUR said.

The released document instructs commanders to facilitate the selection process. It outlines specific criteria for professional fitness, psychological resilience and combat readiness. The order explicitly bans the recruitment of individuals involved in drug trafficking or the distribution of psychotropic substances.

"Alongside stoking interethnic conflict, Moscow is building up its military presence in the Caucasus.
It is likely that the deterioration of relations between Azerbaijan and Russia was prepared in advance." Gyumri is the second largest city in Armenia with the population of over 100,000. Situated around 100km northwest of the capital Yerevan, it sits strategically just 3.5km away from the border with Türkiye, Azerbaijan's closest ally.

Armenia and Russia established the 102nd Military Base there in the 1990s with the idea that Russian soldiers would be able to protect the border with Türkiye, but also to quickly deploy to the Karabakh region in case of Azerbaijani military movement. It did not happen this way in 2023, when Baku reclaimed full control of the Karabakh region after a lightning military campaign. In 2024, in an unprecedented development, Armenia put a freeze on its participation in the Kremlin-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), Moscow's answer to NATO.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said last year he saw "no advantage" in the presence of Russian troops in Armenia, but the Gyumri base remained intact as both countries agreed in 2010 to extend the lease of the base until 2044. The 102nd military base in Guymri is the largest Russian military facility in the South Caucasus. It hosts up to 5,000 personnel. The base includes MiG-29 fighter jets and S-300 air defense systems. But as Armenia is now pushing to normalise relations with Azerbaijan and Türkiye, the Russian base is being seen as no longer serving Yerevan's interests. Armenia is even seeking to reopen its joint border with Türkiye, which would improve relations and help alleviate the country's isolation. Türkiye, a close ally of Azerbaijan, closed the border crossing point in 1993 in a show of solidarity with Baku over the ongoing conflict in the Karabakh region. With unprecedented escalation between Azerbaijan and Russia, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he would support Armenia's peace efforts with Azerbaijan.

The recent deaths of two ethnic Azerbaijanis arrested by police for decades-old murders in Russia and the crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger jet in December that Baku blames on Moscow have severely strained relations.